This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Post updated. I have a friend, who when it comes to real-politique foreign policy, is one of the smarter people I know. They recently pointed out something, which I am not at all sure I agree with, but since this is a higher level analytical site, … Continue reading Real-politique and the Iran war
Tag: real-politique
Two Key Market Questions:
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. I have written about many of these points in earlier posts, but let's consider anew here briefly just two key issues for the markets at present. Each of these areas are based in part ultimately on political power. I have argued for a long time now, … Continue reading Two Key Market Questions:
Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. There is a lot of confusion in the markets about Trump's foreign policy. Those who are not versed in more complex foreign policy concepts and even a few specialists are perplexed and attribute incoherence to it. Markets, which have always failed to understand how important a … Continue reading Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis: How Hidden Power Defines Asset Prices
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. Introduction The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), articulated by Eugene Fama, has long served as the orthodox framework for understanding financial asset … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis: How Hidden Power Defines Asset Prices
Left Meets Right or the Strange Meeting of Mamdani and Trump in the Oval Office
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The unexpected and in some ways odd meeting of Trump and Mamdani certainly requires further macro-political analysis in its fuller market implications. Let me especially here begin by stating once again that the methodology on this site is a Max Weberian politically neutral one. I have … Continue reading Left Meets Right or the Strange Meeting of Mamdani and Trump in the Oval Office
Two Weeks and Counting: Trump’s Sanction Threat
One key question that emerges from the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska is whether Russia's goals were actually to simply buy time and delay the major oil sanctions poised to go on for their sales or alternatively give the US a diplomatic defeat after ramping up global expectations for a peace deal. In this view so … Continue reading Two Weeks and Counting: Trump’s Sanction Threat
Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs
Monday came and went uneventfully for market volatility in what is becoming another huge win for Trump. Let me de-compact some of the key macromarket factors at work here. First, and few people would have predicted this not so long ago Trump has not only not shattered the European--US alliance but strengthened it in ways … Continue reading Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs
The Genius of Trump’s Concept of Capital
This is not a political site nor a stock touting site, but a higher level educational and conceptual site where we try to give you key macro-political insights. A crucial one in order to understand markets going forward is the genius of Trump's concept of capital. Now you can politically love or hate what Trump … Continue reading The Genius of Trump’s Concept of Capital
Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy
When Trump first came to Washington he thought the town was filled with the kind of "lightweights" he had known as a wealthy real estate developer dealing with obsequious politicians at fundraisers. A class that would be impressed by wealth and bend over backwards to accommodate a successful billionaire, or if not, would be no … Continue reading Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy
The pool analogy and the key for US tariff success
I'm trying to get these posts to you more often, but have an incredible amount of work I'm doing, which makes it hard. However, I'll still aim for at least once a week and the goal is three times so keep checking back. I want to give you a very brief, but crucial view, of … Continue reading The pool analogy and the key for US tariff success