This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Market participants working with existing oil frameworks are in some cases currently missing two key variables that should at least be considered seriously. How significant these two factors are remains to be seen, but at least they should not be taken for granted in any higher … Continue reading The Post-Hajj Iran War Window and the Rationalized Supply Illusion
A Slow Train Coming
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. updated 5-11-26 At this site we try to consider higher level theoretical issues. A few years ago, we were talking about the upcoming problem of inflation way before the usual crowd and we talked about AI's voracious need for energy also very early on and the … Continue reading A Slow Train Coming
The Institutionalization of Transparency: Dismantling the Shadow Economy to Restore Market Integrity
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Abstract The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis (MCAH) argues that the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) theoretically fails to consider the potential role of anonymous and illicit capital in the pricing of assets and that further research is needed using the small-n comparative method pioneered by scholars such … Continue reading The Institutionalization of Transparency: Dismantling the Shadow Economy to Restore Market Integrity
What a Luxury‑Goods Loophole Reveals About the Limits of Market Theory
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The Limitations of EMH for Markets In my broader Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis (MCAH) model I have argued that the current EMH model is radically incomplete because it overlooks such crucial things as political power capture and huge flows of illicit capital around the world. Financial … Continue reading What a Luxury‑Goods Loophole Reveals About the Limits of Market Theory
Real-politique and the Iran war
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Post updated. I have a friend, who when it comes to real-politique foreign policy, is one of the smarter people I know. They recently pointed out something, which I am not at all sure I agree with, but since this is a higher level analytical site, … Continue reading Real-politique and the Iran war
Two Key Market Questions:
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. I have written about many of these points in earlier posts, but let's consider anew here briefly just two key issues for the markets at present. Each of these areas are based in part ultimately on political power. I have argued for a long time now, … Continue reading Two Key Market Questions:
Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. There is a lot of confusion in the markets about Trump's foreign policy. Those who are not versed in more complex foreign policy concepts and even a few specialists are perplexed and attribute incoherence to it. Markets, which have always failed to understand how important a … Continue reading Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. First of all, methodologically this is a qualitative not quantitative framework of asset bubble behavior using the small n empirical approach … Continue reading The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis: How Hidden Power Defines Asset Prices
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. Introduction The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), articulated by Eugene Fama, has long served as the orthodox framework for understanding financial asset … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis: How Hidden Power Defines Asset Prices
The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. See additional comments below. Abstract MCAH shows how political power, illicit capital, and asset capture distort commodity prices in the oil … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency