This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below.
The unexpected and in some ways odd meeting of Trump and Mamdani certainly requires further macro-political analysis in its fuller market implications. Let me especially here begin by stating once again that the methodology on this site is a Max Weberian politically neutral one. I have my own definite strong opinions, but try to keep them out of the discussion in these notes. The goal as always is to just raise key educational points and let you decide what they mean from a value perspective. Certainly if you want ideology or propaganda this is not the place for you.
Now Trump has called the Mayor elect of NYC a “commie” and the Mayor in turn has called the President a “fascist” and neither retreated from this position either before, during, or after their interchange at the White House. Trump is certainly pro-capitalist and for strong state authority at least in matters of law and order issues and foreign policy and from a socialist perspective these policies are “fascist” in certain qualities and Mamdani’s calls for public run groceries certainly are heavily socialist at least and from a conservative perspective border on partial sector specific communism. Analytically not ideologically neither figure qualifies for either category in any strict sense of the terms at the present moment. However, it is going to be hard to take seriously the extreme rhetorical claims by either side after this exchange. Let us just say in practice, if not theory, neither sees each other as a sufficient threat as to preclude working together on shared interests.
Also it is clear that both political figures are at base realists, neither is unwilling to bend to reality as fanatics sometimes are. What needs to be said and done to get elected and shore up a political base is different than what actually needs to be done to hold and manage political regimes of various sorts. Mamdani needs Trump government dollars and regulatory support for such things as affordable housing and Trump cannot afford to simply brush aside the voters of the largest city in the US or ignore the changing political spectrum in this most important American city. As I indicated in my last post Mamdani represents a Tammany Hall new immigrant takeover of the NYC political machine not all that different than that of the Irish in a much earlier period.
Then there is the fact that both Mamdani and Trump highlighted, that more than a few of Bernie Sanders’s followers, as surprising as it may seem to the more doctrinaire, actually voted for Trump rather than the more establishment Democratic nominee in the last election. Neither wants to totally alienate those voters by their actions towards each other. Also important here is that Trump has been cultivating a strategic shift of the Republican party to a more working class friendly and minority friendly base. Despite what the conventional media would like to be the case the fact is that Trump performed much better than most previous Republicans in getting a higher percentage of union, African-American, especially males, and hispanic voters in certain communities.
Mamdani in their exchange also appealed to the Trump family’s early history of building working class and middle class housing in an earlier period. Both if you will also need to do something about affordability for each to hold onto their political bases and each knows that.
An additional point that cannot be ignored is that part of the success of Mamdani’s NYC may hinge on attracting wealthy Arab investment in the city. Israel and Gaza are clear areas of extreme disagreement, but the new Middle East that is emerging after the recent warfare is one of major accomadation between Trump and key Arab leaders and with the more radical Islamists and Iran at least at present in a highly defensive position. That means that whatever may be said publicly behind the scenes there is intense pressure on Mamdani to make some kind of rapprochement with Trump. Mamdani no doubt has more lofty political ambitions and he needs to move back at least tactically to the center and be more accommodating. Both men also acknowledge and appreciate political skill, competency, and talent not just ideology and each knows that the other is charismatic and skillful enough not to simply be trifled with and ignored.
None of this, however, is not to suggest that at the end of the day each ultimately would like the other to fail. Mamdani is no doubt hoping that Trump loses the midterm and the next presidential election shifts sharply to the left, something that would make him a key figure in a new politics. And Trump ultimately needs figures like Mamdani to fail and for his election to prove to be longer term what political scientists call a turning point election and major change that lasts. Trump will no doubt still run on being anti-socialist and point to Mamdani as a dangerous sign of the sharp turn to the left of the opposing party. Mamdani will continue the rhetorical characterizations of Trump as an extreme right winger. Each, however, will be able to say they put the city and the country above partisanship and any failure was the result of the actual policy failures of the other.
Nor does this rapprochment change any of the points I made in an earlier post about how all this could play out for NYC. Time will tell, these are interesting times indeed, and the future at least politically is at present unwritten.
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