This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have written extensively in earlier posts about the fact that Trump risks the Socrates's carpenter trap. When Socrates went around Athens all those years ago he found that the carpenters unlike the rhetoricians and many others actually had some real knowledge and skill. The problem … Continue reading Iran war update: Socrates’s carpentry, real-politique or something else? A few reflections on the US “economic D-Day” against Iran.
Tag: Trump
The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below The market's knee-jerk scramble to price in the latest diplomatic headlines—clinging to the illusion of imminent, clean arrangements over the Strait of Hormuz—is a masterclass in superficial analysis. Financial desks trading these temporary relief rallies are treating a grinding, multi-theater war of attrition like a corporate … Continue reading The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
The Pause In The Iran War that Might Not Be A Real Pause At All
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I spoke very recently with a longtime friend who is a military veteran whom I haven't caught up with in years, and our conversation quickly turned to the intense theater playing out around the White House and the Middle East. He brought up a fascinating tactical … Continue reading The Pause In The Iran War that Might Not Be A Real Pause At All
The Possibility of Unilateral Israeli Action in the Iran War
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have a friend who is one of the smartest guys I know on realpolitik whose ideas sometimes I pass along here because they are always in the very least interesting. But you are forewarned: sometimes he's way ahead of the curve and other times he … Continue reading The Possibility of Unilateral Israeli Action in the Iran War
The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below From a strictly Weberian perspective, much can be said analytically for the foundational impulses of certain Trump administration economic initiatives. Viewed objectively, the administration's hyper-transactional orientation, disruption of the legacy bureaucratic inertia Weber often warned about, and weaponization of economic leverage have proven historically effective at … Continue reading The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
Updated Conceptual Consideration of the Iran War Situation
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have pointed out on many occasions, the Iran War could still go a lot of different ways, and many of the key variables remain unknowable if you aren't in the situation room—though a negotiated deal now seems increasingly, highly unlikely. As anticipated, the recent … Continue reading Updated Conceptual Consideration of the Iran War Situation
Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have written about in an earlier post, the contemporary global oil market is presently defined by a profound epistemological divide between two competing forms of rationality, a friction that mirrors the haunting maritime risks of Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice. On one side sits … Continue reading Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis
The Geopolitical Disconnect: Is the Market Mis-pricing a Material Oil Shortage?
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. In this site we try to always give you higher level analysis of key Macro-political market issues. The following ideas are meant to expand the current discourse. As I've suggested before the current Hormuz crisis is sufficiently complex that unless you are in the situation room … Continue reading The Geopolitical Disconnect: Is the Market Mis-pricing a Material Oil Shortage?
A Slow Train Coming
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. updated 5-11-26 At this site we try to consider higher level theoretical issues. A few years ago, we were talking about the upcoming problem of inflation way before the usual crowd and we talked about AI's voracious need for energy also very early on and the … Continue reading A Slow Train Coming
Real-politique and the Iran war
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Post updated. I have a friend, who when it comes to real-politique foreign policy, is one of the smarter people I know. They recently pointed out something, which I am not at all sure I agree with, but since this is a higher level analytical site, … Continue reading Real-politique and the Iran war