This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Post updated. I have a friend, who when it comes to real-politique foreign policy, is one of the smarter people I know. They recently pointed out something, which I am not at all sure I agree with, but since this is a higher level analytical site, … Continue reading Real-politique and the Iran war
Tag: Trump
Two Key Market Questions:
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. I have written about many of these points in earlier posts, but let's consider anew here briefly just two key issues for the markets at present. Each of these areas are based in part ultimately on political power. I have argued for a long time now, … Continue reading Two Key Market Questions:
Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. There is a lot of confusion in the markets about Trump's foreign policy. Those who are not versed in more complex foreign policy concepts and even a few specialists are perplexed and attribute incoherence to it. Markets, which have always failed to understand how important a … Continue reading Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
Left Meets Right or the Strange Meeting of Mamdani and Trump in the Oval Office
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The unexpected and in some ways odd meeting of Trump and Mamdani certainly requires further macro-political analysis in its fuller market implications. Let me especially here begin by stating once again that the methodology on this site is a Max Weberian politically neutral one. I have … Continue reading Left Meets Right or the Strange Meeting of Mamdani and Trump in the Oval Office
New York, NY, Big City of Dreams or What Mamdani’s Win Means for the Macro-political Picture
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The Chinese have a famous curse which is "may you live in interesting times." We are certainly living in interesting times so to speak and wherever you fall on the political spectrum there is much certainly to be fearful of potentially occurring over the next few … Continue reading New York, NY, Big City of Dreams or What Mamdani’s Win Means for the Macro-political Picture
Oil Paused: Where to Now, the Macro Picture
The post discusses critical issues in the oil market affected by geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic factors. It highlights potential impacts from U.S. military actions in Venezuela, rising energy demands due to AI, shifts in global energy narratives, trade wars, and sanctions on Russia. The future of the oil sector remains uncertain but significant.
Tariffs as Capital and the Coming Oil Sanction Push
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. I want to discuss 2 critical issues. First, Trump's new 100 per cent tariff on China for their restrictions on rare earth exports. I have said this in earlier posts that Trump views tariffs as a kind of capital that can like any good businessman would … Continue reading Tariffs as Capital and the Coming Oil Sanction Push
Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. As I indicated in my last post a while ago one of the most important macro-political questions right now continues to be will Trump force the Europeans, Chinese and Indians to go off of Russian Oil. In the case of China and India this would be … Continue reading Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon
Storm Watch: Russia and Iran Sanctions and Market Volatility
I was down twice in Miami over the summer on some of my many visits each year and each time I had to change my trip and was delayed returning up north because of the threat of tropical storms and hurricanes. The first storm I believe named Charlotte hit and made the weather bad for … Continue reading Storm Watch: Russia and Iran Sanctions and Market Volatility
Two Weeks and Counting: Trump’s Sanction Threat
One key question that emerges from the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska is whether Russia's goals were actually to simply buy time and delay the major oil sanctions poised to go on for their sales or alternatively give the US a diplomatic defeat after ramping up global expectations for a peace deal. In this view so … Continue reading Two Weeks and Counting: Trump’s Sanction Threat