Left Meets Right or the Strange Meeting of Mamdani and Trump in the Oval Office

This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The unexpected and in some ways odd meeting of Trump and Mamdani certainly requires further macro-political analysis in its fuller market implications. Let me especially here begin by stating once again that the methodology on this site is a Max Weberian politically neutral one. I have … Continue reading Left Meets Right or the Strange Meeting of Mamdani and Trump in the Oval Office

Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs

Monday came and went uneventfully for market volatility in what is becoming another huge win for Trump. Let me de-compact some of the key macromarket factors at work here. First, and few people would have predicted this not so long ago Trump has not only not shattered the European--US alliance but strengthened it in ways … Continue reading Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs

Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy

When Trump first came to Washington he thought the town was filled with the kind of "lightweights" he had known as a wealthy real estate developer dealing with obsequious politicians at fundraisers. A class that would be impressed by wealth and bend over backwards to accommodate a successful billionaire, or if not, would be no … Continue reading Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy

The one key weakness in real-politique tariffs

I have spoken at length about the problems with the international organization approach that has dominated American policy with only a few limited exceptions since the Cold War. Those problems mean that the real-politique approach which is now emerging has the potential to correct some of these naive, and disempowering excesses that have come to … Continue reading The one key weakness in real-politique tariffs

Getting Down to Specifics on the Trump Reciprocal Trade Tariff Strategy

In this post I want to go beyond simply the usual vague discussions of Trump's tariff strategy. In earlier posts which I recommend you read I considered the general theoretical strategic issues at a higher level that sought to explain the major changes involved ignored by many market participants still incorrectly starting with the international … Continue reading Getting Down to Specifics on the Trump Reciprocal Trade Tariff Strategy

Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History

I recently read an excellent essay by a Hedge Fund CIO Eric Peters in which he correctly argues that Trump's election has thrown completely open the Overton Window and as I have been arguing for quite some time made politics or as this site calls it macro-politics essential for understanding market valuation. As he correctly … Continue reading Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History