Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. Introduction The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), articulated by Eugene Fama, has long served as the orthodox framework for understanding financial asset … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis: How Hidden Power Defines Asset Prices
Category: Investing and Trading
The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. See additional comments below. Abstract MCAH shows how political power, illicit capital, and asset capture distort commodity prices in the oil … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency
The interesting question of a possible AI bubble
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The case of the spectacular rise in AI stocks which have now been the market leaders and reigning stock market narrative for some time certainly requires a great deal of macro-political analysis by any investor regardless of their particular style of investing. Also educationally this run … Continue reading The interesting question of a possible AI bubble
Oil Paused: Where to Now, the Macro Picture
The post discusses critical issues in the oil market affected by geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic factors. It highlights potential impacts from U.S. military actions in Venezuela, rising energy demands due to AI, shifts in global energy narratives, trade wars, and sanctions on Russia. The future of the oil sector remains uncertain but significant.
Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. As I indicated in my last post a while ago one of the most important macro-political questions right now continues to be will Trump force the Europeans, Chinese and Indians to go off of Russian Oil. In the case of China and India this would be … Continue reading Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon
Two Weeks and Counting: Trump’s Sanction Threat
One key question that emerges from the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska is whether Russia's goals were actually to simply buy time and delay the major oil sanctions poised to go on for their sales or alternatively give the US a diplomatic defeat after ramping up global expectations for a peace deal. In this view so … Continue reading Two Weeks and Counting: Trump’s Sanction Threat
Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs
Monday came and went uneventfully for market volatility in what is becoming another huge win for Trump. Let me de-compact some of the key macromarket factors at work here. First, and few people would have predicted this not so long ago Trump has not only not shattered the European--US alliance but strengthened it in ways … Continue reading Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs
To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
Tomorrow is the day that Trump meets with Zelensky and the Europeans to decide if a peace deal gets done. We have covered the oil markets quite a bit on this site, Higher level geopolitical or as I prefer to call them macro-political market factors. are the central concern of all my posts As such … Continue reading To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
Trump just might pull this off: The Genuis of Trump Tariffs, Part 3
In earlier posts we have discussed at a higher level many issues with tariffs. If you have been following this site you would have stayed far ahead of the curve in terms of the various events occurring and your understanding of these effects on the markets. You would also have known the counterfactuals that could … Continue reading Trump just might pull this off: The Genuis of Trump Tariffs, Part 3
Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy
When Trump first came to Washington he thought the town was filled with the kind of "lightweights" he had known as a wealthy real estate developer dealing with obsequious politicians at fundraisers. A class that would be impressed by wealth and bend over backwards to accommodate a successful billionaire, or if not, would be no … Continue reading Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy