I'm trying to get these posts to you more often, but have an incredible amount of work I'm doing, which makes it hard. However, I'll still aim for at least once a week and the goal is three times so keep checking back. I want to give you a very brief, but crucial view, of … Continue reading The pool analogy and the key for US tariff success
Author: emeryd
A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks
The market, of course, refers to black swan events (and you can get the full history of the term elsewhere) as, so to speak, unexpected, off the probability curve events that lead to extreme market volatility. But I would argue usually they aren't really actually that unexpected. Often in fact they are even quite predictable … Continue reading A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks
The one key weakness in real-politique tariffs
I have spoken at length about the problems with the international organization approach that has dominated American policy with only a few limited exceptions since the Cold War. Those problems mean that the real-politique approach which is now emerging has the potential to correct some of these naive, and disempowering excesses that have come to … Continue reading The one key weakness in real-politique tariffs
Part 3: After Discussing the Genius of Tariffs, Now Let’s Consider the Counterfactuals
In two earlier posts I explained the genius of Trump's tariff strategy which are considerable. I also said this site was apolitical, though judging by some of the comments received you might not have believed me. I made the point repeatedly that wherever you fall on the political spectrum you need to understand the concepts … Continue reading Part 3: After Discussing the Genius of Tariffs, Now Let’s Consider the Counterfactuals
High Risk Reward: Trump Tariffs and Politics Over Wall Street
I have spoken a lot in the past about the new global system and approach of the Trump administration, but I want to add here an element alluded to in earlier notes that is crucial for any current market analysis. The markets of the past 3 decades have had several unifying aspects and many 30 … Continue reading High Risk Reward: Trump Tariffs and Politics Over Wall Street
The Genius of Tariffs, Part 2
My apologies for a lack of recent posts but I had some personal matters I had to attend to so while still following the markets closely I lacked the time to compose regular updates. That will now change and I expect to keep you informed about events at least several times a week going forward. … Continue reading The Genius of Tariffs, Part 2
Getting Down to Specifics on the Trump Reciprocal Trade Tariff Strategy
In this post I want to go beyond simply the usual vague discussions of Trump's tariff strategy. In earlier posts which I recommend you read I considered the general theoretical strategic issues at a higher level that sought to explain the major changes involved ignored by many market participants still incorrectly starting with the international … Continue reading Getting Down to Specifics on the Trump Reciprocal Trade Tariff Strategy
Trump’s Genius: Discovering the Key Strategic and Tactical Weakness in Globalism
The odds of becoming a billionaire are extraordinarily low. To succeed you have to come up with some unique and in its own way brilliant creative idea which hardly anyone else has ever thought of before. Usually to do so this is a one time deal. You invent the Bloomberg box or the personal computer … Continue reading Trump’s Genius: Discovering the Key Strategic and Tactical Weakness in Globalism
Reflections on Trump’s Upcoming Tariff Model
Here we are beginning to consider some of the key conceptual ideas market participants need to understand going into the new tariff regime under the current administration. This post is neutral as is this site about the specific politics involved. Whether one agrees or disagrees with the new regime you need to understand conceptually what … Continue reading Reflections on Trump’s Upcoming Tariff Model
Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History
I recently read an excellent essay by a Hedge Fund CIO Eric Peters in which he correctly argues that Trump's election has thrown completely open the Overton Window and as I have been arguing for quite some time made politics or as this site calls it macro-politics essential for understanding market valuation. As he correctly … Continue reading Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History