Monday came and went uneventfully for market volatility in what is becoming another huge win for Trump. Let me de-compact some of the key macromarket factors at work here. First, and few people would have predicted this not so long ago Trump has not only not shattered the European--US alliance but strengthened it in ways … Continue reading Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs
Author: emeryd
To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
Tomorrow is the day that Trump meets with Zelensky and the Europeans to decide if a peace deal gets done. We have covered the oil markets quite a bit on this site, Higher level geopolitical or as I prefer to call them macro-political market factors. are the central concern of all my posts As such … Continue reading To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
Checkmate: Trump Wins on Tariffs
I wrote in earlier posts about the genius of Trump's tariffs in turning globalism on its head reestablishing American hegemony, the swimming pool analogy of increasing private spending while decreasing public spending, and even the potential risks with tariffs if not correctly approached in posts on the counterfactuals and the potential "carpenter problem." Here I … Continue reading Checkmate: Trump Wins on Tariffs
50 Days and Counting
The oil markets as usual are shrugging off key macro-political events. They have concluded as one misguided article put it that Trump's threat of extreme secondary tariffs of 100 per cent on Russian oil are an instance of TACO or "Trump always chickens out" since he has warned that they are coming if Russia does … Continue reading 50 Days and Counting
The Genius of Trump’s Concept of Capital
This is not a political site nor a stock touting site, but a higher level educational and conceptual site where we try to give you key macro-political insights. A crucial one in order to understand markets going forward is the genius of Trump's concept of capital. Now you can politically love or hate what Trump … Continue reading The Genius of Trump’s Concept of Capital
Making Charlottesville Virginia’s Silicon Valley: A Proposal
I recently spent some time in Charlottesville, Virginia, one of that states more beautiful cities in a valley of the Shenandoah Mountains. When I was younger, I spent many an enjoyable and challenging day hiking and climbing in this region. I'm going in this post to venture into territory this site does not ordinarily consider … Continue reading Making Charlottesville Virginia’s Silicon Valley: A Proposal
The night the lights went out in Spain
In several earlier posts I wrote about some very high level, Institute for Advanced Study type level, research that has been done on energy and societal collapse. I recommend you go back and look at those posts covering the work of Tainter among others. Here's the point though: You can be a supporter of clean … Continue reading The night the lights went out in Spain
Trump just might pull this off: The Genuis of Trump Tariffs, Part 3
In earlier posts we have discussed at a higher level many issues with tariffs. If you have been following this site you would have stayed far ahead of the curve in terms of the various events occurring and your understanding of these effects on the markets. You would also have known the counterfactuals that could … Continue reading Trump just might pull this off: The Genuis of Trump Tariffs, Part 3
A Little Bit of Tariff Math
A very short post on an important scenario. Let us say that Trump's end game with tariffs is simply this. Force countries around the world to open up their markets as much as possible. As their competitors get their tariffs reduced to the baseline of 10 per cent which Trump seems to be maintaining, those … Continue reading A Little Bit of Tariff Math
Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy
When Trump first came to Washington he thought the town was filled with the kind of "lightweights" he had known as a wealthy real estate developer dealing with obsequious politicians at fundraisers. A class that would be impressed by wealth and bend over backwards to accommodate a successful billionaire, or if not, would be no … Continue reading Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy