This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have written extensively in earlier posts about the fact that Trump risks the Socrates's carpenter trap. When Socrates went around Athens all those years ago he found that the carpenters unlike the rhetoricians and many others actually had some real knowledge and skill. The problem … Continue reading Iran war update: Socrates’s carpentry, real-politique or something else? A few reflections on the US “economic D-Day” against Iran.
Tag: oil
The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below The market's knee-jerk scramble to price in the latest diplomatic headlines—clinging to the illusion of imminent, clean arrangements over the Strait of Hormuz—is a masterclass in superficial analysis. Financial desks trading these temporary relief rallies are treating a grinding, multi-theater war of attrition like a corporate … Continue reading The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
The Possibility of Unilateral Israeli Action in the Iran War
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have a friend who is one of the smartest guys I know on realpolitik whose ideas sometimes I pass along here because they are always in the very least interesting. But you are forewarned: sometimes he's way ahead of the curve and other times he … Continue reading The Possibility of Unilateral Israeli Action in the Iran War
The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below From a strictly Weberian perspective, much can be said analytically for the foundational impulses of certain Trump administration economic initiatives. Viewed objectively, the administration's hyper-transactional orientation, disruption of the legacy bureaucratic inertia Weber often warned about, and weaponization of economic leverage have proven historically effective at … Continue reading The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
Updated Conceptual Consideration of the Iran War Situation
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have pointed out on many occasions, the Iran War could still go a lot of different ways, and many of the key variables remain unknowable if you aren't in the situation room—though a negotiated deal now seems increasingly, highly unlikely. As anticipated, the recent … Continue reading Updated Conceptual Consideration of the Iran War Situation
Further Reflections on the Escalating Iran War and Hormuz Strait Closure
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. It is entirely possible that the Hormuz Strait crisis resolves tomorrow. The United States still commands extraordinary military resources, and history shows that overwhelming American force can, at times, compel adversaries to step back. The US appears at this point to be ratcheting up the attacks … Continue reading Further Reflections on the Escalating Iran War and Hormuz Strait Closure
A Slow Train Coming
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. updated 5-11-26 At this site we try to consider higher level theoretical issues. A few years ago, we were talking about the upcoming problem of inflation way before the usual crowd and we talked about AI's voracious need for energy also very early on and the … Continue reading A Slow Train Coming
Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. As I indicated in my last post a while ago one of the most important macro-political questions right now continues to be will Trump force the Europeans, Chinese and Indians to go off of Russian Oil. In the case of China and India this would be … Continue reading Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon
A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks
The market, of course, refers to black swan events (and you can get the full history of the term elsewhere) as, so to speak, unexpected, off the probability curve events that lead to extreme market volatility. But I would argue usually they aren't really actually that unexpected. Often in fact they are even quite predictable … Continue reading A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks
Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
As one commentator put it on the late night European Bloomberg show "Its now all about tariffs and politics!" For those of you who have been following the posts on this site you know that we believe this is the case regarding the importance of politics far more than the markets ever want to really … Continue reading Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations