This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have pointed out on many occasions, the Iran War could still go a lot of different ways, and many of the key variables remain unknowable if you aren't in the situation room—though a negotiated deal now seems increasingly, highly unlikely. As anticipated, the recent … Continue reading Updated Conceptual Consideration of the Iran War Situation
Tag: Iran
Further Reflections on the Escalating Iran War and Hormuz Strait Closure
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. It is entirely possible that the Hormuz Strait crisis resolves tomorrow. The United States still commands extraordinary military resources, and history shows that overwhelming American force can, at times, compel adversaries to step back. The US appears at this point to be ratcheting up the attacks … Continue reading Further Reflections on the Escalating Iran War and Hormuz Strait Closure
Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy
When Trump first came to Washington he thought the town was filled with the kind of "lightweights" he had known as a wealthy real estate developer dealing with obsequious politicians at fundraisers. A class that would be impressed by wealth and bend over backwards to accommodate a successful billionaire, or if not, would be no … Continue reading Is Trump a Realist Politician or Socrates’s Carpenter: A Key Question for American Foreign Policy
A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks
The market, of course, refers to black swan events (and you can get the full history of the term elsewhere) as, so to speak, unexpected, off the probability curve events that lead to extreme market volatility. But I would argue usually they aren't really actually that unexpected. Often in fact they are even quite predictable … Continue reading A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks
Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
As one commentator put it on the late night European Bloomberg show "Its now all about tariffs and politics!" For those of you who have been following the posts on this site you know that we believe this is the case regarding the importance of politics far more than the markets ever want to really … Continue reading Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations