This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have written extensively in earlier posts about the fact that Trump risks the Socrates's carpenter trap. When Socrates went around Athens all those years ago he found that the carpenters unlike the rhetoricians and many others actually had some real knowledge and skill. The problem … Continue reading Iran war update: Socrates’s carpentry, real-politique or something else? A few reflections on the US “economic D-Day” against Iran.
Tag: Iran war
The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below The market's knee-jerk scramble to price in the latest diplomatic headlines—clinging to the illusion of imminent, clean arrangements over the Strait of Hormuz—is a masterclass in superficial analysis. Financial desks trading these temporary relief rallies are treating a grinding, multi-theater war of attrition like a corporate … Continue reading The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
The Pause In The Iran War that Might Not Be A Real Pause At All
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I spoke very recently with a longtime friend who is a military veteran whom I haven't caught up with in years, and our conversation quickly turned to the intense theater playing out around the White House and the Middle East. He brought up a fascinating tactical … Continue reading The Pause In The Iran War that Might Not Be A Real Pause At All
The Possibility of Unilateral Israeli Action in the Iran War
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have a friend who is one of the smartest guys I know on realpolitik whose ideas sometimes I pass along here because they are always in the very least interesting. But you are forewarned: sometimes he's way ahead of the curve and other times he … Continue reading The Possibility of Unilateral Israeli Action in the Iran War
The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below From a strictly Weberian perspective, much can be said analytically for the foundational impulses of certain Trump administration economic initiatives. Viewed objectively, the administration's hyper-transactional orientation, disruption of the legacy bureaucratic inertia Weber often warned about, and weaponization of economic leverage have proven historically effective at … Continue reading The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
Updated Conceptual Consideration of the Iran War Situation
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have pointed out on many occasions, the Iran War could still go a lot of different ways, and many of the key variables remain unknowable if you aren't in the situation room—though a negotiated deal now seems increasingly, highly unlikely. As anticipated, the recent … Continue reading Updated Conceptual Consideration of the Iran War Situation
Further Reflections on the Escalating Iran War and Hormuz Strait Closure
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. It is entirely possible that the Hormuz Strait crisis resolves tomorrow. The United States still commands extraordinary military resources, and history shows that overwhelming American force can, at times, compel adversaries to step back. The US appears at this point to be ratcheting up the attacks … Continue reading Further Reflections on the Escalating Iran War and Hormuz Strait Closure
Deeper Theoretical Thoughts on the Kospi Correction and Current Market Contradictions
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below These thoughts reflect a theoretical macro-political perspective and may or may not ultimately prove correct from simply a trading perspective. Whether the current downward pressure in key tech stocks we are seeing in markets such as the Kospi and more globally represents a mere short term … Continue reading Deeper Theoretical Thoughts on the Kospi Correction and Current Market Contradictions
The Global Energy Variable: South Korea and the KOSPI Equation
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below Given the extreme volatility and intricate complexity of the current global matrix, it must be stated at the outset that the following analysis could be completely wrong. The reader is explicitly warned that any attempt to map real-time geopolitical friction onto financial markets is inherently speculative. … Continue reading The Global Energy Variable: South Korea and the KOSPI Equation
Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have written about in an earlier post, the contemporary global oil market is presently defined by a profound epistemological divide between two competing forms of rationality, a friction that mirrors the haunting maritime risks of Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice. On one side sits … Continue reading Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis