The market, of course, refers to black swan events (and you can get the full history of the term elsewhere) as, so to speak, unexpected, off the probability curve events that lead to extreme market volatility. But I would argue usually they aren't really actually that unexpected. Often in fact they are even quite predictable … Continue reading A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks
Tag: investing and trading
Part 3: After Discussing the Genius of Tariffs, Now Let’s Consider the Counterfactuals
In two earlier posts I explained the genius of Trump's tariff strategy which are considerable. I also said this site was apolitical, though judging by some of the comments received you might not have believed me. I made the point repeatedly that wherever you fall on the political spectrum you need to understand the concepts … Continue reading Part 3: After Discussing the Genius of Tariffs, Now Let’s Consider the Counterfactuals
The Genius of Tariffs, Part 2
My apologies for a lack of recent posts but I had some personal matters I had to attend to so while still following the markets closely I lacked the time to compose regular updates. That will now change and I expect to keep you informed about events at least several times a week going forward. … Continue reading The Genius of Tariffs, Part 2
Getting Down to Specifics on the Trump Reciprocal Trade Tariff Strategy
In this post I want to go beyond simply the usual vague discussions of Trump's tariff strategy. In earlier posts which I recommend you read I considered the general theoretical strategic issues at a higher level that sought to explain the major changes involved ignored by many market participants still incorrectly starting with the international … Continue reading Getting Down to Specifics on the Trump Reciprocal Trade Tariff Strategy
Reflections on Trump’s Upcoming Tariff Model
Here we are beginning to consider some of the key conceptual ideas market participants need to understand going into the new tariff regime under the current administration. This post is neutral as is this site about the specific politics involved. Whether one agrees or disagrees with the new regime you need to understand conceptually what … Continue reading Reflections on Trump’s Upcoming Tariff Model
Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History
I recently read an excellent essay by a Hedge Fund CIO Eric Peters in which he correctly argues that Trump's election has thrown completely open the Overton Window and as I have been arguing for quite some time made politics or as this site calls it macro-politics essential for understanding market valuation. As he correctly … Continue reading Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History
Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
As one commentator put it on the late night European Bloomberg show "Its now all about tariffs and politics!" For those of you who have been following the posts on this site you know that we believe this is the case regarding the importance of politics far more than the markets ever want to really … Continue reading Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
The Inner Secret of Stock Market Crashes: Political Narrative, the HardcoreTrader’s Attitude, and Market Dislocation
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. What exactly is the deeper secret of stock market crashes? There's a lot of dimensions to the investing markets, some obvious and others much more hidden. Lots of things going on at the same time. Lots of investing styles. Lots of different areas of the market … Continue reading The Inner Secret of Stock Market Crashes: Political Narrative, the HardcoreTrader’s Attitude, and Market Dislocation
The Key Trading Elements Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis Leaves Out
Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has much that is of value in the theory. In fact, given the way most people invest in the markets, it is more or less the case. He himself acknowledges, and higher-level people usually do with such things, that there is a certain slippage in his theory---i.e. it's a … Continue reading The Key Trading Elements Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis Leaves Out
A Few Thoughts on Francois Roddier’s “The Thermodynamics of Evolution”
Since this site is dedicated to higher level analysis of Macropolitical Markets we will occasionally comment and point the reader to interesting works in such fields as psychology, physics, philosophy, and cosmology among other areas. This may seem quite far afield from what one might expect in a site trying to teach key concepts for … Continue reading A Few Thoughts on Francois Roddier’s “The Thermodynamics of Evolution”