This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. There is a lot of confusion in the markets about Trump's foreign policy. Those who are not versed in more complex foreign policy concepts and even a few specialists are perplexed and attribute incoherence to it. Markets, which have always failed to understand how important a … Continue reading Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
Tag: Globalism
New York, NY, Big City of Dreams or What Mamdani’s Win Means for the Macro-political Picture
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. The Chinese have a famous curse which is "may you live in interesting times." We are certainly living in interesting times so to speak and wherever you fall on the political spectrum there is much certainly to be fearful of potentially occurring over the next few … Continue reading New York, NY, Big City of Dreams or What Mamdani’s Win Means for the Macro-political Picture
Oil Paused: Where to Now, the Macro Picture
The post discusses critical issues in the oil market affected by geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic factors. It highlights potential impacts from U.S. military actions in Venezuela, rising energy demands due to AI, shifts in global energy narratives, trade wars, and sanctions on Russia. The future of the oil sector remains uncertain but significant.
To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
Tomorrow is the day that Trump meets with Zelensky and the Europeans to decide if a peace deal gets done. We have covered the oil markets quite a bit on this site, Higher level geopolitical or as I prefer to call them macro-political market factors. are the central concern of all my posts As such … Continue reading To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
Checkmate: Trump Wins on Tariffs
I wrote in earlier posts about the genius of Trump's tariffs in turning globalism on its head reestablishing American hegemony, the swimming pool analogy of increasing private spending while decreasing public spending, and even the potential risks with tariffs if not correctly approached in posts on the counterfactuals and the potential "carpenter problem." Here I … Continue reading Checkmate: Trump Wins on Tariffs
The Genius of Trump’s Concept of Capital
This is not a political site nor a stock touting site, but a higher level educational and conceptual site where we try to give you key macro-political insights. A crucial one in order to understand markets going forward is the genius of Trump's concept of capital. Now you can politically love or hate what Trump … Continue reading The Genius of Trump’s Concept of Capital
Trump just might pull this off: The Genuis of Trump Tariffs, Part 3
In earlier posts we have discussed at a higher level many issues with tariffs. If you have been following this site you would have stayed far ahead of the curve in terms of the various events occurring and your understanding of these effects on the markets. You would also have known the counterfactuals that could … Continue reading Trump just might pull this off: The Genuis of Trump Tariffs, Part 3
A Little Bit of Tariff Math
A very short post on an important scenario. Let us say that Trump's end game with tariffs is simply this. Force countries around the world to open up their markets as much as possible. As their competitors get their tariffs reduced to the baseline of 10 per cent which Trump seems to be maintaining, those … Continue reading A Little Bit of Tariff Math
The pool analogy and the key for US tariff success
I'm trying to get these posts to you more often, but have an incredible amount of work I'm doing, which makes it hard. However, I'll still aim for at least once a week and the goal is three times so keep checking back. I want to give you a very brief, but crucial view, of … Continue reading The pool analogy and the key for US tariff success
The one key weakness in real-politique tariffs
I have spoken at length about the problems with the international organization approach that has dominated American policy with only a few limited exceptions since the Cold War. Those problems mean that the real-politique approach which is now emerging has the potential to correct some of these naive, and disempowering excesses that have come to … Continue reading The one key weakness in real-politique tariffs