Checkmate: Trump Wins on Tariffs

I wrote in earlier posts about the genius of Trump's tariffs in turning globalism on its head reestablishing American hegemony, the swimming pool analogy of increasing private spending while decreasing public spending, and even the potential risks with tariffs if not correctly approached in posts on the counterfactuals and the potential "carpenter problem." Here I … Continue reading Checkmate: Trump Wins on Tariffs

A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks

The market, of course, refers to black swan events (and you can get the full history of the term elsewhere) as, so to speak, unexpected, off the probability curve events that lead to extreme market volatility. But I would argue usually they aren't really actually that unexpected. Often in fact they are even quite predictable … Continue reading A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks