In this post I want to go beyond simply the usual vague discussions of Trump's tariff strategy. In earlier posts which I recommend you read I considered the general theoretical strategic issues at a higher level that sought to explain the major changes involved ignored by many market participants still incorrectly starting with the international … Continue reading Getting Down to Specifics on the Trump Reciprocal Trade Tariff Strategy
Trump’s Genius: Discovering the Key Strategic and Tactical Weakness in Globalism
The odds of becoming a billionaire are extraordinarily low. To succeed you have to come up with some unique and in its own way brilliant creative idea which hardly anyone else has ever thought of before. Usually to do so this is a one time deal. You invent the Bloomberg box or the personal computer … Continue reading Trump’s Genius: Discovering the Key Strategic and Tactical Weakness in Globalism
Reflections on Trump’s Upcoming Tariff Model
Here we are beginning to consider some of the key conceptual ideas market participants need to understand going into the new tariff regime under the current administration. This post is neutral as is this site about the specific politics involved. Whether one agrees or disagrees with the new regime you need to understand conceptually what … Continue reading Reflections on Trump’s Upcoming Tariff Model
Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History
I recently read an excellent essay by a Hedge Fund CIO Eric Peters in which he correctly argues that Trump's election has thrown completely open the Overton Window and as I have been arguing for quite some time made politics or as this site calls it macro-politics essential for understanding market valuation. As he correctly … Continue reading Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History
Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
As one commentator put it on the late night European Bloomberg show "Its now all about tariffs and politics!" For those of you who have been following the posts on this site you know that we believe this is the case regarding the importance of politics far more than the markets ever want to really … Continue reading Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
Dangerous Escalation of Ukrainian Conflict
I have written in earlier posts about the dangers of the US allowing Ukraine to use advanced US ATACMS missiles to attack in Russian territory. Well that has now occurred and Russia has formally and very publicly changed its nuclear doctrine to include such a use as a legitimate reason to use its nuclear arsenal … Continue reading Dangerous Escalation of Ukrainian Conflict
The dangerous tight rope walk of proxy wars
In a recent post I mentioned the thesis that in some sense World War 3 had already begun and that this time unlike earlier world wars seen last century it would occur with the superpowers using proxies to battle for hegemony on the world stage. Anyone considering the current Ukraine war and Middle East conflict … Continue reading The dangerous tight rope walk of proxy wars
The Problem of Energy for Complex Societies and the Risk of the Transition to Clean Energy Done Prematurely Causing Societal Collapse
There is a serious danger that if we try to speed up too much the transition to clean energy we will have societal collapse. The results could be even much worse than climate change itself, which is saying a lot. I think it's important in a site like this to discuss higher level macro-political topics … Continue reading The Problem of Energy for Complex Societies and the Risk of the Transition to Clean Energy Done Prematurely Causing Societal Collapse
The Inner Secret of Stock Market Crashes: Political Narrative, the HardcoreTrader’s Attitude, and Market Dislocation
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. What exactly is the deeper secret of stock market crashes? There's a lot of dimensions to the investing markets, some obvious and others much more hidden. Lots of things going on at the same time. Lots of investing styles. Lots of different areas of the market … Continue reading The Inner Secret of Stock Market Crashes: Political Narrative, the HardcoreTrader’s Attitude, and Market Dislocation
The Key Trading Elements Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis Leaves Out
Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has much that is of value in the theory. In fact, given the way most people invest in the markets, it is more or less the case. He himself acknowledges, and higher-level people usually do with such things, that there is a certain slippage in his theory---i.e. it's a … Continue reading The Key Trading Elements Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis Leaves Out