This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. There is a lot of confusion in the markets about Trump's foreign policy. Those who are not versed in more complex foreign policy concepts and even a few specialists are perplexed and attribute incoherence to it. Markets, which have always failed to understand how important a … Continue reading Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
Category: Uncategorized
The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. First of all, methodologically this is a qualitative not quantitative framework of asset bubble behavior using the small n empirical approach … Continue reading The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
Tomorrow is the day that Trump meets with Zelensky and the Europeans to decide if a peace deal gets done. We have covered the oil markets quite a bit on this site, Higher level geopolitical or as I prefer to call them macro-political market factors. are the central concern of all my posts As such … Continue reading To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
The night the lights went out in Spain
In several earlier posts I wrote about some very high level, Institute for Advanced Study type level, research that has been done on energy and societal collapse. I recommend you go back and look at those posts covering the work of Tainter among others. Here's the point though: You can be a supporter of clean … Continue reading The night the lights went out in Spain
The pool analogy and the key for US tariff success
I'm trying to get these posts to you more often, but have an incredible amount of work I'm doing, which makes it hard. However, I'll still aim for at least once a week and the goal is three times so keep checking back. I want to give you a very brief, but crucial view, of … Continue reading The pool analogy and the key for US tariff success
A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks
The market, of course, refers to black swan events (and you can get the full history of the term elsewhere) as, so to speak, unexpected, off the probability curve events that lead to extreme market volatility. But I would argue usually they aren't really actually that unexpected. Often in fact they are even quite predictable … Continue reading A Short List of Potential Black Swan Macro-political (geo-political) Risks
The one key weakness in real-politique tariffs
I have spoken at length about the problems with the international organization approach that has dominated American policy with only a few limited exceptions since the Cold War. Those problems mean that the real-politique approach which is now emerging has the potential to correct some of these naive, and disempowering excesses that have come to … Continue reading The one key weakness in real-politique tariffs
Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
As one commentator put it on the late night European Bloomberg show "Its now all about tariffs and politics!" For those of you who have been following the posts on this site you know that we believe this is the case regarding the importance of politics far more than the markets ever want to really … Continue reading Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
Dangerous Escalation of Ukrainian Conflict
I have written in earlier posts about the dangers of the US allowing Ukraine to use advanced US ATACMS missiles to attack in Russian territory. Well that has now occurred and Russia has formally and very publicly changed its nuclear doctrine to include such a use as a legitimate reason to use its nuclear arsenal … Continue reading Dangerous Escalation of Ukrainian Conflict
The Key Trading Elements Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis Leaves Out
Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has much that is of value in the theory. In fact, given the way most people invest in the markets, it is more or less the case. He himself acknowledges, and higher-level people usually do with such things, that there is a certain slippage in his theory---i.e. it's a … Continue reading The Key Trading Elements Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis Leaves Out