This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have said repeatedly that with the price of oil, unless things significantly change from the present macro-political situation, a slow train is coming. Metaphorically, what that means is that at some point in the not too distant future the markets may have to reprice from … Continue reading Key Concepts to Consider with Oil Markets and the Iran War: An Update
Category: Ukraine war
Oil Paused: Where to Now, the Macro Picture
The post discusses critical issues in the oil market affected by geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic factors. It highlights potential impacts from U.S. military actions in Venezuela, rising energy demands due to AI, shifts in global energy narratives, trade wars, and sanctions on Russia. The future of the oil sector remains uncertain but significant.
Tariffs as Capital and the Coming Oil Sanction Push
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. I want to discuss 2 critical issues. First, Trump's new 100 per cent tariff on China for their restrictions on rare earth exports. I have said this in earlier posts that Trump views tariffs as a kind of capital that can like any good businessman would … Continue reading Tariffs as Capital and the Coming Oil Sanction Push
Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. As I indicated in my last post a while ago one of the most important macro-political questions right now continues to be will Trump force the Europeans, Chinese and Indians to go off of Russian Oil. In the case of China and India this would be … Continue reading Three Macro-political Issues on the Horizon
Storm Watch: Russia and Iran Sanctions and Market Volatility
I was down twice in Miami over the summer on some of my many visits each year and each time I had to change my trip and was delayed returning up north because of the threat of tropical storms and hurricanes. The first storm I believe named Charlotte hit and made the weather bad for … Continue reading Storm Watch: Russia and Iran Sanctions and Market Volatility
Two Weeks and Counting: Trump’s Sanction Threat
One key question that emerges from the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska is whether Russia's goals were actually to simply buy time and delay the major oil sanctions poised to go on for their sales or alternatively give the US a diplomatic defeat after ramping up global expectations for a peace deal. In this view so … Continue reading Two Weeks and Counting: Trump’s Sanction Threat
Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs
Monday came and went uneventfully for market volatility in what is becoming another huge win for Trump. Let me de-compact some of the key macromarket factors at work here. First, and few people would have predicted this not so long ago Trump has not only not shattered the European--US alliance but strengthened it in ways … Continue reading Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs