I have spoken at length about the problems with the international organization approach that has dominated American policy with only a few limited exceptions since the Cold War. Those problems mean that the real-politique approach which is now emerging has the potential to correct some of these naive, and disempowering excesses that have come to … Continue reading The one key weakness in real-politique tariffs
Category: Trading and investing
Part 3: After Discussing the Genius of Tariffs, Now Let’s Consider the Counterfactuals
In two earlier posts I explained the genius of Trump's tariff strategy which are considerable. I also said this site was apolitical, though judging by some of the comments received you might not have believed me. I made the point repeatedly that wherever you fall on the political spectrum you need to understand the concepts … Continue reading Part 3: After Discussing the Genius of Tariffs, Now Let’s Consider the Counterfactuals
High Risk Reward: Trump Tariffs and Politics Over Wall Street
I have spoken a lot in the past about the new global system and approach of the Trump administration, but I want to add here an element alluded to in earlier notes that is crucial for any current market analysis. The markets of the past 3 decades have had several unifying aspects and many 30 … Continue reading High Risk Reward: Trump Tariffs and Politics Over Wall Street
Getting Down to Specifics on the Trump Reciprocal Trade Tariff Strategy
In this post I want to go beyond simply the usual vague discussions of Trump's tariff strategy. In earlier posts which I recommend you read I considered the general theoretical strategic issues at a higher level that sought to explain the major changes involved ignored by many market participants still incorrectly starting with the international … Continue reading Getting Down to Specifics on the Trump Reciprocal Trade Tariff Strategy
Reflections on Trump’s Upcoming Tariff Model
Here we are beginning to consider some of the key conceptual ideas market participants need to understand going into the new tariff regime under the current administration. This post is neutral as is this site about the specific politics involved. Whether one agrees or disagrees with the new regime you need to understand conceptually what … Continue reading Reflections on Trump’s Upcoming Tariff Model
Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History
I recently read an excellent essay by a Hedge Fund CIO Eric Peters in which he correctly argues that Trump's election has thrown completely open the Overton Window and as I have been arguing for quite some time made politics or as this site calls it macro-politics essential for understanding market valuation. As he correctly … Continue reading Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History
Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
As one commentator put it on the late night European Bloomberg show "Its now all about tariffs and politics!" For those of you who have been following the posts on this site you know that we believe this is the case regarding the importance of politics far more than the markets ever want to really … Continue reading Tariffs and Politics as the Key to Market Valuations
The Key Trading Elements Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis Leaves Out
Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) has much that is of value in the theory. In fact, given the way most people invest in the markets, it is more or less the case. He himself acknowledges, and higher-level people usually do with such things, that there is a certain slippage in his theory---i.e. it's a … Continue reading The Key Trading Elements Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis Leaves Out