This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below These thoughts reflect a theoretical macro-political perspective and may or may not ultimately prove correct from simply a trading perspective. Whether the current downward pressure in key tech stocks we are seeing in markets such as the Kospi and more globally represents a mere short term … Continue reading Deeper Theoretical Thoughts on the Kospi Correction and Current Market Contradictions
Category: Trading and investing
The Global Energy Variable: South Korea and the KOSPI Equation
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below Given the extreme volatility and intricate complexity of the current global matrix, it must be stated at the outset that the following analysis could be completely wrong. The reader is explicitly warned that any attempt to map real-time geopolitical friction onto financial markets is inherently speculative. … Continue reading The Global Energy Variable: South Korea and the KOSPI Equation
Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have written about in an earlier post, the contemporary global oil market is presently defined by a profound epistemological divide between two competing forms of rationality, a friction that mirrors the haunting maritime risks of Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice. On one side sits … Continue reading Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis
The Post-Hajj Iran War Window and the Rationalized Supply Illusion
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Market participants working with existing oil frameworks are in some cases currently missing two key variables that should at least be considered seriously. How significant these two factors are remains to be seen, but at least they should not be taken for granted in any higher … Continue reading The Post-Hajj Iran War Window and the Rationalized Supply Illusion
A Slow Train Coming
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. updated 5-11-26 At this site we try to consider higher level theoretical issues. A few years ago, we were talking about the upcoming problem of inflation way before the usual crowd and we talked about AI's voracious need for energy also very early on and the … Continue reading A Slow Train Coming
The Institutionalization of Transparency: Dismantling the Shadow Economy to Restore Market Integrity
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Abstract The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis (MCAH) argues that the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) theoretically fails to consider the potential role of anonymous and illicit capital in the pricing of assets and that further research is needed using the small-n comparative method pioneered by scholars such … Continue reading The Institutionalization of Transparency: Dismantling the Shadow Economy to Restore Market Integrity
Two Key Market Questions:
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. I have written about many of these points in earlier posts, but let's consider anew here briefly just two key issues for the markets at present. Each of these areas are based in part ultimately on political power. I have argued for a long time now, … Continue reading Two Key Market Questions:
Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. There is a lot of confusion in the markets about Trump's foreign policy. Those who are not versed in more complex foreign policy concepts and even a few specialists are perplexed and attribute incoherence to it. Markets, which have always failed to understand how important a … Continue reading Understanding Trump’s Real-Politique
The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. First of all, methodologically this is a qualitative not quantitative framework of asset bubble behavior using the small n empirical approach … Continue reading The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. See additional comments below. Abstract MCAH shows how political power, illicit capital, and asset capture distort commodity prices in the oil … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency