One key question that emerges from the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska is whether Russia's goals were actually to simply buy time and delay the major oil sanctions poised to go on for their sales or alternatively give the US a diplomatic defeat after ramping up global expectations for a peace deal. In this view so … Continue reading Two Weeks and Counting: Trump’s Sanction Threat
Category: Overton Window
Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs
Monday came and went uneventfully for market volatility in what is becoming another huge win for Trump. Let me de-compact some of the key macromarket factors at work here. First, and few people would have predicted this not so long ago Trump has not only not shattered the European--US alliance but strengthened it in ways … Continue reading Post Monday: No Games from the Europeans and the Security Guarantees versus Territory Tradeoffs
To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
Tomorrow is the day that Trump meets with Zelensky and the Europeans to decide if a peace deal gets done. We have covered the oil markets quite a bit on this site, Higher level geopolitical or as I prefer to call them macro-political market factors. are the central concern of all my posts As such … Continue reading To Be or Not To Be or Why the Markets Might Not Like Monday
Checkmate: Trump Wins on Tariffs
I wrote in earlier posts about the genius of Trump's tariffs in turning globalism on its head reestablishing American hegemony, the swimming pool analogy of increasing private spending while decreasing public spending, and even the potential risks with tariffs if not correctly approached in posts on the counterfactuals and the potential "carpenter problem." Here I … Continue reading Checkmate: Trump Wins on Tariffs
The Genius of Trump’s Concept of Capital
This is not a political site nor a stock touting site, but a higher level educational and conceptual site where we try to give you key macro-political insights. A crucial one in order to understand markets going forward is the genius of Trump's concept of capital. Now you can politically love or hate what Trump … Continue reading The Genius of Trump’s Concept of Capital
Trump just might pull this off: The Genuis of Trump Tariffs, Part 3
In earlier posts we have discussed at a higher level many issues with tariffs. If you have been following this site you would have stayed far ahead of the curve in terms of the various events occurring and your understanding of these effects on the markets. You would also have known the counterfactuals that could … Continue reading Trump just might pull this off: The Genuis of Trump Tariffs, Part 3
A Little Bit of Tariff Math
A very short post on an important scenario. Let us say that Trump's end game with tariffs is simply this. Force countries around the world to open up their markets as much as possible. As their competitors get their tariffs reduced to the baseline of 10 per cent which Trump seems to be maintaining, those … Continue reading A Little Bit of Tariff Math
The pool analogy and the key for US tariff success
I'm trying to get these posts to you more often, but have an incredible amount of work I'm doing, which makes it hard. However, I'll still aim for at least once a week and the goal is three times so keep checking back. I want to give you a very brief, but crucial view, of … Continue reading The pool analogy and the key for US tariff success
Part 3: After Discussing the Genius of Tariffs, Now Let’s Consider the Counterfactuals
In two earlier posts I explained the genius of Trump's tariff strategy which are considerable. I also said this site was apolitical, though judging by some of the comments received you might not have believed me. I made the point repeatedly that wherever you fall on the political spectrum you need to understand the concepts … Continue reading Part 3: After Discussing the Genius of Tariffs, Now Let’s Consider the Counterfactuals
Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History
I recently read an excellent essay by a Hedge Fund CIO Eric Peters in which he correctly argues that Trump's election has thrown completely open the Overton Window and as I have been arguing for quite some time made politics or as this site calls it macro-politics essential for understanding market valuation. As he correctly … Continue reading Turning Point Elections, the Overton Window, and the Great Manand Woman Theory of History