This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have said repeatedly that with the price of oil, unless things significantly change from the present macro-political situation, a slow train is coming. Metaphorically, what that means is that at some point in the not too distant future the markets may have to reprice from … Continue reading Key Concepts to Consider with Oil Markets and the Iran War: An Update
Category: Iran War and Oil
The Third Synthesis: Realpolitik and the Real Estate Deal Maker
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below For some time, I have debated here whether Donald Trump operates as a hardcore, structurally conscious realpolitik actor or whether he fits the mold of Socrates’s carpenter—the artisan who possesses specialized skills in a specific craft (in this case, real estate development and transactional deal-making) but … Continue reading The Third Synthesis: Realpolitik and the Real Estate Deal Maker
A Slow Train Coming, part 2
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below For quite some time now I have been predicting what has in fact occurred which is that the Iran war would continue to escalate and that a deal would not be forthcoming to end the conflict. Also that the Strait of Hormuz throughput of oil would … Continue reading A Slow Train Coming, part 2
Iran war update: Socrates’s carpentry, real-politique or something else? A few reflections on the US “economic D-Day” against Iran.
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have written extensively in earlier posts about the fact that Trump risks the Socrates's carpenter trap. When Socrates went around Athens all those years ago he found that the carpenters unlike the rhetoricians and many others actually had some real knowledge and skill. The problem … Continue reading Iran war update: Socrates’s carpentry, real-politique or something else? A few reflections on the US “economic D-Day” against Iran.
Moore’s Law, AI, and the 2008 Real Estate Analogy
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below Zero Hedge—much like this site—frequently likes to give its readers a heads-up on key breaking news and higher-level structural concepts. Sometimes it is superb in this regard, and other times it features material I disagree with quite a bit. However, I definitely recommend considering a very … Continue reading Moore’s Law, AI, and the 2008 Real Estate Analogy
The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below The market's knee-jerk scramble to price in the latest diplomatic headlines—clinging to the illusion of imminent, clean arrangements over the Strait of Hormuz—is a masterclass in superficial analysis. Financial desks trading these temporary relief rallies are treating a grinding, multi-theater war of attrition like a corporate … Continue reading The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
The Pause In The Iran War that Might Not Be A Real Pause At All
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I spoke very recently with a longtime friend who is a military veteran whom I haven't caught up with in years, and our conversation quickly turned to the intense theater playing out around the White House and the Middle East. He brought up a fascinating tactical … Continue reading The Pause In The Iran War that Might Not Be A Real Pause At All
The Possibility of Unilateral Israeli Action in the Iran War
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have a friend who is one of the smartest guys I know on realpolitik whose ideas sometimes I pass along here because they are always in the very least interesting. But you are forewarned: sometimes he's way ahead of the curve and other times he … Continue reading The Possibility of Unilateral Israeli Action in the Iran War
The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below From a strictly Weberian perspective, much can be said analytically for the foundational impulses of certain Trump administration economic initiatives. Viewed objectively, the administration's hyper-transactional orientation, disruption of the legacy bureaucratic inertia Weber often warned about, and weaponization of economic leverage have proven historically effective at … Continue reading The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
Updated Conceptual Consideration of the Iran War Situation
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have pointed out on many occasions, the Iran War could still go a lot of different ways, and many of the key variables remain unknowable if you aren't in the situation room—though a negotiated deal now seems increasingly, highly unlikely. As anticipated, the recent … Continue reading Updated Conceptual Consideration of the Iran War Situation