This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below Given the extreme volatility and intricate complexity of the current global matrix, it must be stated at the outset that the following analysis could be completely wrong. The reader is explicitly warned that any attempt to map real-time geopolitical friction onto financial markets is inherently speculative. … Continue reading The Global Energy Variable: South Korea and the KOSPI Equation
Category: Investing
Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have written about in an earlier post, the contemporary global oil market is presently defined by a profound epistemological divide between two competing forms of rationality, a friction that mirrors the haunting maritime risks of Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice. On one side sits … Continue reading Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis
The Geopolitical Disconnect: Is the Market Mis-pricing a Material Oil Shortage?
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. In this site we try to always give you higher level analysis of key Macro-political market issues. The following ideas are meant to expand the current discourse. As I've suggested before the current Hormuz crisis is sufficiently complex that unless you are in the situation room … Continue reading The Geopolitical Disconnect: Is the Market Mis-pricing a Material Oil Shortage?
The Post-Hajj Iran War Window and the Rationalized Supply Illusion
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Market participants working with existing oil frameworks are in some cases currently missing two key variables that should at least be considered seriously. How significant these two factors are remains to be seen, but at least they should not be taken for granted in any higher … Continue reading The Post-Hajj Iran War Window and the Rationalized Supply Illusion
A Slow Train Coming
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. updated 5-11-26 At this site we try to consider higher level theoretical issues. A few years ago, we were talking about the upcoming problem of inflation way before the usual crowd and we talked about AI's voracious need for energy also very early on and the … Continue reading A Slow Train Coming
The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. First of all, methodologically this is a qualitative not quantitative framework of asset bubble behavior using the small n empirical approach … Continue reading The Group Psychology Trader Action Model (GPTA)
The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis: How Hidden Power Defines Asset Prices
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. Introduction The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), articulated by Eugene Fama, has long served as the orthodox framework for understanding financial asset … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis: How Hidden Power Defines Asset Prices
The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency
Dr. Emery This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. This paper is a preliminary release intended to advance my broader argument. Specific analysis; sources and references remain subject to revision and correction. See additional comments below. Abstract MCAH shows how political power, illicit capital, and asset capture distort commodity prices in the oil … Continue reading The Macro-political Captured Assets Hypothesis, the Oil Sector, and the Limits of Market Efficiency