This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below For quite some time now I have been predicting what has in fact occurred which is that the Iran war would continue to escalate and that a deal would not be forthcoming to end the conflict. Also that the Strait of Hormuz throughput of oil would … Continue reading A Slow Train Coming, part 2
Category: Investing
Iran war update: Socrates’s carpentry, real-politique or something else? A few reflections on the US “economic D-Day” against Iran.
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I have written extensively in earlier posts about the fact that Trump risks the Socrates's carpenter trap. When Socrates went around Athens all those years ago he found that the carpenters unlike the rhetoricians and many others actually had some real knowledge and skill. The problem … Continue reading Iran war update: Socrates’s carpentry, real-politique or something else? A few reflections on the US “economic D-Day” against Iran.
Moore’s Law, AI, and the 2008 Real Estate Analogy
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below Zero Hedge—much like this site—frequently likes to give its readers a heads-up on key breaking news and higher-level structural concepts. Sometimes it is superb in this regard, and other times it features material I disagree with quite a bit. However, I definitely recommend considering a very … Continue reading Moore’s Law, AI, and the 2008 Real Estate Analogy
The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below The market's knee-jerk scramble to price in the latest diplomatic headlines—clinging to the illusion of imminent, clean arrangements over the Strait of Hormuz—is a masterclass in superficial analysis. Financial desks trading these temporary relief rallies are treating a grinding, multi-theater war of attrition like a corporate … Continue reading The Great Deal Illusion: Why Financial Desks May Be Walking Into a Trap
The Pause In The Iran War that Might Not Be A Real Pause At All
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below I spoke very recently with a longtime friend who is a military veteran whom I haven't caught up with in years, and our conversation quickly turned to the intense theater playing out around the White House and the Middle East. He brought up a fascinating tactical … Continue reading The Pause In The Iran War that Might Not Be A Real Pause At All
The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below From a strictly Weberian perspective, much can be said analytically for the foundational impulses of certain Trump administration economic initiatives. Viewed objectively, the administration's hyper-transactional orientation, disruption of the legacy bureaucratic inertia Weber often warned about, and weaponization of economic leverage have proven historically effective at … Continue reading The Weberian Calculus and the Iran War: Strengths and Structural Limits of US Foreign Policy
The Global Energy Variable: South Korea and the KOSPI Equation
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below Given the extreme volatility and intricate complexity of the current global matrix, it must be stated at the outset that the following analysis could be completely wrong. The reader is explicitly warned that any attempt to map real-time geopolitical friction onto financial markets is inherently speculative. … Continue reading The Global Energy Variable: South Korea and the KOSPI Equation
Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below As I have written about in an earlier post, the contemporary global oil market is presently defined by a profound epistemological divide between two competing forms of rationality, a friction that mirrors the haunting maritime risks of Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice. On one side sits … Continue reading Antonio’s ships and the Current Oil Crisis
The Geopolitical Disconnect: Is the Market Mis-pricing a Material Oil Shortage?
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. In this site we try to always give you higher level analysis of key Macro-political market issues. The following ideas are meant to expand the current discourse. As I've suggested before the current Hormuz crisis is sufficiently complex that unless you are in the situation room … Continue reading The Geopolitical Disconnect: Is the Market Mis-pricing a Material Oil Shortage?
The Post-Hajj Iran War Window and the Rationalized Supply Illusion
This post is opinion only. See full disclaimer below. Market participants working with existing oil frameworks are in some cases currently missing two key variables that should at least be considered seriously. How significant these two factors are remains to be seen, but at least they should not be taken for granted in any higher … Continue reading The Post-Hajj Iran War Window and the Rationalized Supply Illusion